Climate Change and War

NYTimes just listed climate conflict as an important new idea of 2007

December 9, 2007

Climate Conflicts

"It took years for a consensus on the existence and causes of climate change to emerge. But it took no time at all, it seems, for leaders around the world to latch onto the notion that global warming will bring war. In the spring, a report by retired U.S. generals and admirals called on Washington to incorporate climate change, especially its destabilizing effect on weak states, into the United States’ national defense strategy. Soon after, United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon wrote in The Washington Post that the origin of the brutal fighting between herders and farmers in Darfur was an extended drought that was tied to the warming of the Indian Ocean — itself the product of new weather patterns driven by human activity. And then Al Gore won the Nobel Peace Prize in part for his climate-change documentary, “An Inconvenient Truth.” What does global warming have to do with peace? In the view of the Nobel panel, it “may induce large scale migration and lead to greater competition for the Earth’s resources ... [and] increased danger of violent conflicts and wars, within and between states.”

It stands to reason that the consequences scientists expect from global warming (droughts, floods, failed crops) would worsen the problems that can lead to conflict (poverty, inequality, refugee flows). But Idean Salehyan, a political scientist at the University of North Texas, warns against making too much of that point. There’s little empirical data linking scarcity to conflict, he argues; if anything, people tend to fight over the abundance of resources."

Iran

One of the most interesting political developments in the last few years. This report derails the call for war, sanctions, call into question the policy of preemption, and suggestions that Iran is a rational actor. Pretty much groundbreaking all around.

NIE Iran Report 2007

Although I do fail to see how this is a victory for Iran. Basically it just says, fine, we believe you.

IR as a field

Here are some stats about the field.

Top journals
JCR, IO, and JPR are the top three.

Top papers published in the last two years

Heavily slants towards Civil Wars.

Top 20 papers overall
IPE/conflict and dem peace papers are well represented.

Who Killed Chavez?...No One

Chavez is more paranoid than I am.

"Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Wednesday CNN may have been instigating his murder when the U.S. TV network showed a photograph of him with a label underneath that read "Who killed him?" The caption appeared to be a production mistake -- confusing a Chavez news item with one on the death of a football star. "
I want the state prosecutor to look into bringing a suit against CNN for instigating murder in Venezuela," he said. "... undoubtedly it is part of the psychological warfare."

ESPN on Gore's Peace Prize

Even ESPN is getting in on the act.

"Those Hollywood Searchlights Around Gore's Home Sure Eat Power: Gore wasn't the first quack to win the Nobel Peace Prize, and history suggests he will not be the last. Gore spent eight years in the White House, and in that time took no meaningful action regarding greenhouse gases. The Clinton-Gore administration did not raise fuel economy standards for cars and trucks or propose domestic carbon trading. Though Clinton and Gore made a great show of praising the Kyoto Protocol, they refused even to submit the treaty to the Senate for consideration, let alone push for ratification. During his 2000 run for the presidency, Gore said little about climate change or binding global-warming reforms. In the White House and during his presidential campaign, Gore advocated no consequential action regarding greenhouse gases; then, there was a political cost attached. Once Gore was out of power and global-warming proposals no longer carried a political cost -- indeed, could be used for self-promotion -- suddenly Gore discovered his intense desire to demand that other leaders do what he had not! It is a triumph of postmodernism that Gore won the Nobel Peace Prize for no specific accomplishment other than making a movie of self-praise. Gore caused no peace nor led any reconciliation of belligerent parties nor performed any service to the dispossessed, the achievements the Peace Prize was created to honor. All Gore did was promote himself from Hollywood, and for this, he gets a Nobel. Very postmodern."

Are You Experienced?

Here are a few of my favorite lines from this Dowd NYTimes article on Hilary.

• "She went on some first lady jaunts and made a good speech at a U.N. women’s conference in Beijing. But she was certainly not, as her top Iowa supporter, former governor Tom Vilsack claimed yesterday on MSNBC, “the face of the administration in foreign affairs.”
• Obama’s one-liner evoked something that rubs some people the wrong way about Hillary. Getting ahead through connections is common in life. But Hillary cloaks her nepotism in feminism.
• “With all due respect,” she told a crowd in Iowa. “I don’t think living in a foreign country between the ages of 6 and 10 is foreign policy experience." But is living in the White House between the ages of 45 and 53 foreign policy experience?"

Decline of Tenure Faculty

NY Times on the increase of adjunct faculty. Notice how poli sci is not include as a field that can benefit from adjuncts.
"Professors with tenure or who are on a tenure track are now a distinct minority on the country’s campuses, as the ranks of part-time instructors and professors hired on a contract have swelled, according to federal figures analyzed by the AAUP. Mark B. Rosenberg, chancellor of the State University System of Florida, said that part-timers can provide real-world experience to students and fill gaps in nursing, math, accounting and other disciplines with a shortage of qualified faculty. He also said the shift could come with costs. Adjuncts are less likely to have doctoral degrees, educators say. They also have less time to meet with students, and research suggests that students who take many courses with them are somewhat less likely to graduate."

Why to avoid non-Ph.D. adjuncts:
Not connected with the currents of research and scholarship in the fieldNo time to prepare classes
Not trained in the basics of the field
Letters of recommendation carry little weight
No time to help students
Little authority as a part time worker
Lack of support staff and TAs
Degrees represent little extra time in the classroom

Iran and the Election

Interesting fact from the recent NYTimes election poll
"Just 4 percent of Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire would favor a candidate who advocates using military action soon to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons; 38 percent of New Hampshire Republicans and 31 percent of Iowa Republicans would support such a candidate."

Extra Credit

International Security
Extra Credit Assignment

You may choose to either write a report on a movie or a book for extra credit. This report is due when you turn in your final test. The movie review will be worth up to 10 points; a book review will be worth up to 20 points.

Details:
Movie: The movie must deal with international security issues including anything we have covered in class. Foreign policy, war, conflict, arms, and historical animosity are all included. No movies on interpersonal relationships or tenuous connections to international events will be accepted (Borat). The movie can come from any time period. It would be best to get the movie approved before you watch. You must write at least a 4 page paper that will include one half review of the movie and the issues it covers. The second half will consider how it is relevant to the class and what lessons we can take from it. This assignment will be graded like any other essay, 10 points are not guaranteed. I do NOT want a recap of the movie.

Book: The book must deal with contemporary international security issues. It should be published after 9/11. The same issues mentioned in the movie option are fair game. It would be best to get the book approved by me before attempting to write a review. Your review must be at least 7 pages. It should be completed as your normal required book report (1/3 review, 1/3 connection to international security, and 1/3 criticisms or support). This assignment will be graded like any other essay, 20 points are not guaranteed. I do NOT want a recap of the book.

"Why don't you shut up?"

Way too much diplomacy lately.
"Spanish King Juan Carlos, seated next to Zapatero, angrily turned to Chavez and said, "Why don't you shut up?"

International Security

Here is the schedule for the remaining classes.

Nov 13 Territoriality and Territorial Issues

Nov 15 Alliances and Arms Races

Nov 20 Kantian Tripod

Nov 22 Thanksgiving

Nov 27 Tragedy, Nov 29 Bare Branches, Dec 4 Vulcan's, Dec 6 Assassin's

Final, Dec 14, 10:30am

IPSA

As I mentioned, I will be giving two presentations this weekend. If would prefer students looking for extra credit to attend the session on violence. Conference will be in the Student Center East on Hasted, I think both presentations are in the White Oaks A room.

SESSION II: 10:45-12:00 noon
PANEL I Session Title: Violence in the System
Organizer/Moderator: Brandon Valeriano
Location: White Oaks A
Topics & Presenters • Russia and the United States, 1991-2005: Regime Change and the Transformations of an Interstate Rivalry Vitaliy Voznyak and Brandon Valeriano, UIC •

Using a Fuzzy Future Model to Analyze Violence In Iraq Ribhi I. Salhi, Roosevelt University •

Been There, Done That: The Navajo War and Experiments in Navajo Nation-Building Chris Newman, Elgin Community College •

Terrorism at the Doorstep? A Comparative Look at Issue Salience for Local versus National Level Candidates Catherine Griffiths, UIC
Discussant: Brandon Valeriano, UIC

SESSION IV 3:45 – 5:00 p.m.
PANEL I Session Title: Urban Politics II: Race, Elections, and Inequality
Organizer/Moderator: Susan Gaffney, Governors State University
Location: White Oaks A
Topics & Presenters • The Influence of Public and Private Sector Development on Inequality in the Urban Spatial Structure Anthony Paul Andrews, Governors State University •

Conflict, Cooperation, or a Colorblind Environment? What Local Lawmakers Say About the Experience of Blacks Serving on City Councils Gregory Neddenriep, Northeastern University •

Competition for Office: Mayoral Elections Andrew McNitt, Eastern Illinois University and Chris Newman, Elgin Community College •

Latino Cultural Assimilation, Divided Loyalties, and World Cup Television Ratings Brandon Valeriano, UIC

Territory and the Arctic

As some of you know, I was just in Canada. Read this while I was there, which goes over the coming territorial dispute over the rights to the Arctic.

Treading on Thin Ice

"In recent months, a Cold War-style game of imperial conquest has developed beneath the ice of the Arctic Ocean and the Northwest Passage, a submarine-driven dispute involving the United States, Norway, Denmark and especially Canada and Russia. Mr. Harper used this week's Throne Speech to signal the federal government was stepping up its presence in the Far North, pledging a bold and expensive military campaign to assert sovereignty over territory claimed by Canada, and areas of the Arctic that are still in dispute."

WWIII

I couldn't agree with the following more:

Avoiding WWIII
"Despite the very real causes for U.S. complaint, the escalation of American threats against Iran is unwise. It is grossly premature. It is dangerous, as it greatly increases the likelihood of accidental escalation into a preventable war. It is alarmingly ill-timed, as an isolated United States wages simultaneous ground wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and both conflicts are going badly. And it is diplomatically counterproductive. Congress and U.S. opinion leaders should slam on the brakes -- if they can."

Preemption Gone Bad

Semi-old NY Times article

Pre-emptive Caution: The Case of Syria

By DAVID E. SANGER

Published: October 15, 2007

WASHINGTON, Oct. 14 — It was President Bush who, a year after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, rewrote America’s national security strategy to warn any nation that might be thinking of trying to develop atomic weapons that it could find itself the target of a pre-emptive military strike.

But that was the fall of 2002, when the world looked very different from how it does in the fall of 2007. Now, the case of Syria, which Israeli and American analysts suspect was trying to build a nuclear reactor, has become a prime example of what can happen when Mr. Bush’s first-term instincts run headlong into second-term realities.

Five years later, dealing with nations that may have nuclear weapons ambitions — but are also staying within the letter of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty — looks a lot more complicated than it once did.

This time it was the Israelis who invoked Mr. Bush’s doctrine, determining that what they believed was a nascent Syrian effort to build a nuclear reactor could not be tolerated.

In a curious role reversal, some of Mr. Bush’s own top advisers were urging restraint before Israel bombed the site on Sept. 6, raising questions about whether the threat was too murky and too distant to warrant military action. Those are precisely the kinds of questions Mr. Bush’s critics say should have been raised about Iraq.

Minority Fellow

Interested minority undergrads should apply, and come see me.

Minority Fellows Program APPLICATION DEADLINE APPROACHING: October 26
The APSA Minority Fellows Program, which was established in 1969 as an effort to increase the number of minority scholars in the discipline, has designated more than 300 fellows and contributed to the successful completion of doctoral political science programs for dozens of ndividuals. Fellows with stipends receive a $4,000 fellowship that is disbursed in two $2,000 payments--one at the end of their first graduate year and one at the end of their second--provided that they remain in good academic standing. Additional applicants who do not receive funds from the Association may also be recognized and recommended for admission and financial support to graduate political science programs. Awards are based on students' undergraduate course work, GPA, extracurricular activities, GRE scores, and recommendations from faculty.

The Minority Fellows program is designed primarily for minority students applying to enter a doctoral program in POLITICAL SCIENCE for the FIRST TIME. Additional eligibility criteria include:

• Applicants must be members of one of the following racial/ethnic minority groups: African Americans, Asian Pacific Americans, Latinos/as, and Native Americans (federal and state recognized tribes);
• Applicants must demonstrate an interest in teaching and potential for research in political science;
• Applicant must be a US Citizen at time of award; and
• Applicants must demonstrate financial need.
  

For more information, see www.apsanet.org/section_427.cfm. For more information, contact: Kim Mealy at kmealy@apsanet.org.

Is this an Alliance?

Lets see if everyone was paying attention in class, is this an alliance?

Gore and Peace

As some of you know, I am really upset that Gore got the Nobel Peace Prize. Mainly because work on global warming has nothing to do with peace. The link is tenuous at best. This economist article makes some good points.

"IF THE Nobel Peace Prize were awarded for making the world a more peaceful place, then this year’s winners—Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—would be a bizarre choice. But two out of the previous three peace prizes went to people and organisations who had nothing to do with peace.
Evidently the committee has decided to redefine the award as the Nobel Prize for Making the World a Better Place in Some Unspecified Way."

The New York Times notes, "there will be skeptics who ask what the Peace Prize has to do with global warming. The committee answered that unhesitatingly with its warning that climate change, if unchecked, could unleash massive migrations, violent competitions for resources and, ultimately, threaten the “security of mankind.”

I don't really appreciate being label a skeptic. I am an empiricist and there is little to no evidence of what the Nobel prize committee claims will occur. Resource wars have been rare to non-existent throughout international history. Migrations have not lead to widespread conflict, even refugee movements (although they are obviously harmful to the well being of peoples). I fail to see how the security of mankind is threatened through an increase in violence by global warming. Global warming is clearly an important problem, but it is a peace/war problem?

Why I hate 'The War."

Oh PBS, how you have failed me. I remember the 'Civil War' fondly. Incredible documentary that covered both the human side of the war and the grand scope of history. 'The War' is simply confused, confusing, trivial, and misguided.

I feel compelled to watch, I can't turn away. Yet, Ken Burn's 'the War' is tedious and boring. Very little new or interesting is presented. The documentary has many internal contradictions. For example, it state's that the Pearl Harbor attack was a surprise, then later details how the American's knew there would be an attack somewhere. Elsewhere, the documentary jumps around in time and places. Talking about Midway one minute, then the attack on North Africa the next. I didn't know where we were fighting or when half the time.

It very rarely details the diplomatic battles taking place, everything is either simply about the fighting or the people involved. I don't really care that some guys dad drove him to be shipped off to war. I wasn't very moved. I haven't even mentioned the lack of diverse perspectives in the film. Sure, they cover Japanese American's, but very briefly. Where are all the blacks and Latinos? This is needed especially if they are going to cover Alabama and California. Talk about "whitewashing" history.. Are you telling me there were no black soldiers that could have been profiled from Mobile?

Burn's seems to have something out for MacAuther. Is this to set up his return later? Who cares really. They didn't even mention why he was in the Philippines in the first place. I just think its funny he is the whipping boy for the failure in the Philippines. Burn's makes it seem like he was reading my pet goat, like Bush was during 9/11, during the Japanese attacks.

Notice how the photos are blurred so you don't see faces or wounds? I am sure this is to keep this show for family viewing, yet it decreases the impact. You can hardly tell the images are blurred. I didn't notice for a bit until I looked closely, and consider I am watching in HD. Besides, the point is that war is brutal and devastating. We never get that point since all the images in the film are blurred, just like the whole enterprise. But then again, did we really need to see a dead starved baby? Why can't you show dead soldiers yet a dead baby is ok?

Why he did choose to point out that some solider was peeing in a photo? Why did they have some creepy 'junglevision' camera work that was mixed in with old photos?

More to come...I am going to keep watching because its my job. But really, I would rather watch Two and Half Men at this point. Its more intellectually engaging.

Extras
Are you kidding me? The extra Latino coverage started out great with a focus on the Marine Raiders, my grandfathers old unit. But did they really have to focus on the atrocities or the fact that the Latino guy wished his best friend would die from his wounds (he didn't know it was his best friend at the time and he was screaming, preventing the unit from sleeping). Thats like making OJ or the KKK the main contributions of black and Anglo culture in a documentary 100 years from now.

Nice NYTimes article that makes fun of the American-centric perspective of the documentary.

Iran Vacation Fall 07?

It should not be surprising that the USA is planning on attacking Iran. Even France is warming to the idea. What is surprising and disheartening the lack of support internally for an attack and also that it seems this will be an Air Force only plan. Limited wars do not work!

"The US president faces strong opposition to military action, however, within his own joint chiefs of staff. “None of them think it is a good idea, but they will do it if they are told to,” said a senior defence source."

Domestic Politics

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/15/opinion/15skinner.html?pagewanted=print

Al Qaeda Franchising

Apparently Al Qaeda is into franchising. Pretty scary article, but I wonder if by claiming so often how dangerous the group is, the United States is making Al Qaeda into a more a potent attack force by branding alone.

"Some of those groups have jumped at the chance to align themselves with the Al Qaeda "brand name," which has soared in popularity because of its increasingly sophisticated multimedia campaigns and widespread opposition to U.S. foreign policy, particularly the war in Iraq, the officials and private experts say."

America the Textbook

Grad school colleague of mine has been using Jon Stewart's America as a textbook in Intro to American Politics. Now he seems to be getting some interesting press. Don't anyone get any ideas, movies are enough of a stretch for me.

Isreali Lobby

Dr. Walt and Mearsheimer made the NY Times with their new book. Lets all look at their picture.

French Education System

This video makes Teen South Carolina look good. I still don't know if this is real or if the audience flubbed the question on purpose. Either way, its pretty funny. On that note, geography quiz next week students.

APSA

For those in the graduate course, I am strongly recommending that you attend an APSA panel this week. Here is a listing of all the panels by subject. Anything from 18 to 21 (preferred) is suitable. Locations will not be posted online. Ask me by email sometime after Wed. You can also search by name or keyword here.

Syllabii

The Syllabus for 284 (International Conflict/Security) is here
The Syllabus for 571 (PhD IR Core) is here

How to Download Articles

Here is how you download an article, important for both classes.
For example:
Gartzke, E. and M. Simon (1999). "Hot Hand: A Critical Analysis of Enduring Rivalries." Journal of Politics 61(3): 777-98
So the journal is Journal of Politics, 1999, Issue 3
Go to:
http://www.uic.edu/depts/lib/reference/resources/journals/
Search for the Journal of Politics in the open field
Since the article was published in 1999, pick link one, Jstor
At this point you need to log in with your UIC netid
The simple thing to do now would be to just search the journal for the title of the article, in this case Hot Hand. It comes up as the first link, download and print.
Let me know if anyone has any further questions.

Pig War II

The last pig war, Austria vs. Serbia in the early 1900's...Pig War II

Russia Territorial Question

North Pole
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=070801111151.7ie3xna9&show_article=1
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=R4YA22ACPBC1TQFIQMFCFF4AVCBQYIV0?xml=/news/2007/08/01/wpole101.xml

Lets go invading

And I was starting to like Obama but invading a sovereign country is probably not the best idea.

Scary Japan

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=6770304

Hating Michael Moore

Its odd to hate some of the people you agree with. This happens quite often with me - Dems in Congress, Michael Moore, and the American national soccer team. This article details why someone should avoid all things Michael Moore.

Axis of Evil, Part Duex

I really need a one/two word name for this blog. How about Axis of Disunity? Loving Chavez? This article details the recent Alliance formed between Hugo Chavez and Iran. Good times...
Axis of Unity...

Hamas Mickey

Hamas Mickey Mouse killed by a jew. If only sesame street would tackle these issues. Which character would play Mel Gibson? The grouch?
http://www.breitbart.tv/html/2357.html

Restrain this

I always said England's support during the recent wars was an example of a restraining alliance.

"Christopher Meyer said that fear explained why Prime Minister Tony Blair chose to stand with US President George W. Bush in his decision to invade Afghanistan in the immediate aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks -- to temper his aggressive battle plans."

Fog of War Report

The Fog of War report is due on June 28th. It should be between 5-7 pages. There is no length requirement but you obviously need a certain amount of space to complete the assignment.

Assignment:
Propose a documentary movie based on an interview with one person or a group of people. Outline who you are choosing and why. Then explain how you would conduct a critical oral history interview of the subject(s). What lessons from the Fog of War book would be useful in examining this case? Why? What new lessons might be learned? How did the Fog of War influence your choice of subject and goals? (Do not pick a President or similar leader of a state. Stay away from any event since 9/11.)

I really hope this is a joke

Gay bomb...yes, really

"As part of a military effort to develop non-lethal weapons, the proposal suggested, "One distasteful but completely non-lethal example would be strong aphrodisiacs, especially if the chemical also caused homosexual behavior."

Someone got fired

Change in Iraq policy? Didn't the media think to notice this?

"The man chosen by President Bush to become his new "war czar" told Congress on Thursday that national security advisor Stephen Hadley would no longer be responsible for Iraq policy, indicating the administration has quietly engineered a significant change in foreign policy leadership that could directly affect U.S. war strategy."

Lets Split Up Families

I am a little upset that conservatives always seem to go back and forth on their principles when it involves Latinos. Lately they have been against family provisions typically involved in Visa applications. The whole point was to keep families together. I though the traditional family unit was important for conservatives. I guess that only applies to people who are not Brown.

"He also said he will walk away if Menendez and Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.) win passage of an amendment that would more than double the number of green cards available under the bill for the parents of U.S. citizens. Kyl said conservatives believe today's family unification system is being misused by illegal immigrants, whose U.S.-born children are citizens."

Should I even remind everyone that 'amnesty' was originally signed into law and supported by the great Republican icon Ronald Regan?