Lets Sue OPEC

Who thinks its a good idea to sue OPEC, the group of countries that controls oil supplies? Apparently the House does, which reminds me why Congress should not be making foreign policy decisions.
"But the White House said such suits could spawn retaliatory measures by oil-producing countries and "lead to oil supply disruptions and an escalation in the price of gasoline, natural gas, home heating oil." The administration urged "diplomatic efforts ... rather than lawsuits in U.S. courts" to address global oil production. "
So thank your local congressman/women for the higher gas prices to come.

Clinton's Strategy?

Does Hilary Clinton have a foreign policy strategy?
I would define a strategy (grand strategy or vision to be simple) as your plan to deal with all current and future military threats and challenges, whether they be military, political, or economic.
For all the faults of the Bush Admin (of which there are many, particularly foreign policy ones) at least they had a vision. Most would suggest their strategy was one of preemption or offensive realism. The plan would be to confront threats before they reach our shores. We all now know how dumb this strategy was, attack a potential threat and you miss the actual threats (Iran and NK). You also make new ones (unstable Iraq, embolden Iran). Its the "Minority Report" version of international affairs. Bad movie, bad policy. But what alternative does Clinton offer?

Now, am I unfairly picking on Hilary? Maybe. But she is the front runner for the Dems who are likely to win this round. She also consistently attacks Bush's mistakes, so it is only fair to ask what guidance and views would she put forth if elected?

To start off, most international history books now cite Bill Clinton as an extreme foreign policy failure. From his reluctance to get involved in genocide (Rwanda) and other human rights disasters (Haiti) to his half-hearted attempts to deal with our future enemies (Iraq and NK) and weak attack on Kosovo that limited military options, he failed all around. Lucky for him, this whole Iraq thing has done more damage than Bill ever did, so no one seems to mention that anymore. So if she is running on this nostalgia for the good old Bill days, I am of course going to be critical.

So does she offer anything new or different for the future?

On Iraq
"Asked in Red Oak how she would disengage from Iraq, she gave a precise, nuanced and up-to-the-minute answer: Withdraw the troops from the areas of sectarian conflict like Baghdad, keep a small force fighting al-Qaeda in al-Anbar province, move some troops to the Turkish border, protect the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and other civilian facilities, maintain a special-operations capability. And then, instead of the usual lip service to training Iraqi forces, she said, "We may also leave some forces to help train the Iraqis if there seems a chance this Iraqi government will get any better. But I'm doubtful about that."
I would think Turkey might not like the above idea. Also, leaving only troops to protect the embassy might make them consistent targets.

"Sen. Clinton has explained that she is not sorry for voting as she did; she only regrets "the way the president used the authority."
I am not really sure how you can regret the way Bush used his authority. You give someone the authority to go to war, they go to war, and then you are upset with them?

"After all, she has long supported using the U.S. military to serve humanitarian aims, and it's logical to conclude that the experience in Iraq has done little to shake her faith."
This statement is consistent with what I have been saying for years, failures are never learned. People only learn from success. How can you be for humanitarian efforts yet against Iraq? Wasn't the whole issue humanitarian in the first place (before the WMD thing)?

It has been stated that her service on the Armed Services Committee gives her unparalleled national security expertise. I don't see how this can be the case. Look at the bills passed during the last Congress. It doesn't really seem like they are debating issues relevant to foreign policy. Her own Senate webpage on her national security/foreign policy successes/initiatives is largely bare of real foreign policy issues. Where is her position on Iran, North Korea, or even Russia?

The best case we have for Clinton's foreign policy strategy comes from a 2006 speech. Things did not go well from the begging when I read this quote:
"We need the founders' understanding that a stronger America comes from strengthened bonds with other nations"
Which is funny if one remembers Washington's quote about avoiding alliances or how American screwed over France to make peace with Britain after the Revolution.

"We need new vision and leadership in the global fight against terrorism."
Agreed, so what your vision?

So here it is, wait for it...
"They include our enduring friendship with Israel, our firm commitment to the security and well-being of our own people, our friends and our allies, and a belief that dreams of democracy and human rights are ones that America can and must help make real."
So what new vision does she propose? That we remain friends with Israel, protect ourselves, and advance the course for democracy and human rights (isn't that what we did in Iraq?). Stunning reversal.
It seems like we will stay the course in the Middle East, plus try to piss off some other states like Saudi Arabia.

What changes does she propose?
"We have to be conscious of the humility that is necessary in the exercise of power."
Good idea, too bad the whole Iraq war and the world's hatred of the US makes this a moot point.

I just love this part
"I don't believe you face threats like Iran or North Korea by outsourcing it to others and standing on the sidelines...U.S. policy must be clear and unequivocal. We cannot and should not — must not — permit Iran to build or acquire nuclear weapons. In order to prevent that from occurring, we must have more support vigorously and publicly expressed by China and Russia, and we must move as quickly as feasible for sanctions in the United Nations."
So to solve the problems in the world in the face of 'outsourcing," America will outsource our issues to China, Russia, and the UN. Way to stay away from the flip flopping thing Hilary.

Overall, I am not convinced that Clinton can provide the foreign policy leadership required now. This is not to say that I see someone better, I just don't like the idea that she might be the solution. Candidates need to propose a real vision, not a bunch of criticisms and banal statements that no one would object to.

McCain is actually funny

McCain is coming up big with me lately. First off all, he actually seems to have a sense of humor and a good memory of facts. I thought the whole "Maybe his solution will be to get out his small varmint gun and drive those Guatemalans off his lawn" comment directed towards Romney was just a joke. I didn't know there was background to the whole incident.

"Then, with a chuckle, he made his cutting quip that referenced two embarrassing episodes for Romney in the past six months.

Romney has faced criticism for calling himself a lifelong hunter even though he joined the National Rifle Association in August and officials in four states where he has lived said he never took out a hunting license. Defending himself, he said in April, "I've always been a rodent and rabbit hunter, small varmints, if you will."

Also, The Boston Globe reported late last year that several illegal immigrants, including at least one from Guatemala, worked at the lawn care company that worked on Romney's two-and-a-half acre property in a Boston suburb for a decade. His aides have said that Romney was not aware of the workers' status, and that the owner was in the country legally."

Btw: I am not happy with the Dems for delaying the bill in the Senate. The more time this takes, more ridiculous amendments will be added to the bill.

Quantifying Progress in Iraq

Everyone knows how much I love quantification. So how do we know if there is progress in Iraq? The Brookings Institute (which is supposed to be bipartisan or right leaning) seems have come up with a novel way to do so.

"The Iraq Index is a statistical compilation of economic, public opinion, and security data. This resource will provide updated information on various criteria, including crime, telephone and water service, troop fatalities, unemployment, Iraqi security forces, oil production, and coalition troop strength. The index is designed to quantify the rebuilding efforts and offer an objective set of criteria for benchmarking performance. It is the first in-depth, non-partisan assessment of American efforts in Iraq, and is based primarily on U.S. government information."

Lets all bomb Iran!

Threat begets threat which then begets more threats. This is the story of international history, things do not change. We are seeing the same process today. American attacks Iraq which makes Iran pursue nuclear weapons all the more quickly. Iran succeeds in enrichment of uranium and American threatens again. The cycle will continue until one side is defeated, yet it is the people who will suffer the most.

Mr. John Bolton is at it again, rattling the sabers.
"Iran has "clearly mastered the enrichment technology now...they're not stopping, they're making progress and our time is limited", he said. Economic sanctions "with pain" had to be the next step, followed by attempting to overthrow the theocratic regime and, ultimately, military action to destroy nuclear sites."

Immigration Reform

Lots of news today regarding a new immigration reform initiative.
"Immigration is a tough issue for a lot of Americans," Bush said. "The agreement reached today is one that will help enforce our borders, but equally importantly, it will treat people with respect. This is a bill where people who live here in our country will be treated without amnesty, but without animosity."

I am not sure how all this is going to pan out since the bill still needs to be composed in a final form and voted on. At least if the Reps and Newt are pissed, something good must be happening.
"The pact could shatter at any moment. Immigration is among the most complex and emotional issues that Congress confronts. Senate debate, scheduled to start Monday, will determine if the bipartisan coalition can fend off Republicans opposing legalization and Democrats wary of a massive new temporary worker program that would start at 400,000 low-skill workers a year and could rise as high as 600,000."

Some suggest this is proposal will weaken American security, yet when was the last time a terrorist has come through the Mexican border?
"The president is so desperate for a legacy and a domestic policy win that he is willing to sell out the American people and our national security," Tancredo said."

"Mr. Dobbs opened the program by calling the deal an apparent victory for “the pro-illegal-alien lobby.” The administration was “hellbent on creating a North American union without the consent of the American people,” he said, and the plan could “threaten national sovereignty and security as well.”

But the idea of a points systems for skilled labor seems to ignore the need in America for unskilled labor. Bringing only those with an education will make it tougher for American workers to get high paying jobs. Bringing unskilled laborers fills a demonstrated need.
"The proposal also would shift the criteria for permanent residency away from immigrants with family in the U.S. and toward those with skills that could help the economy. About 40 percent of "guest worker" visas would be earmarked for applicants with in-demand skills or job experience, advanced degrees and English language skills who would be expedited ahead of others seeking a work visa. "

It also seems unfair that those who want to be become permanent citizens in the future will have to return to their home countries for a year. I would think that we should want the money and the industry of these immigrants to contribute to the American economy, not their homeland.

"David Guerra wants to be legal, but he says the path to citizenship offered by the Senate on Thursday would be too risky and too expensive, and could end up driving him deeper into the shadows. Guerra's wife and children in El Salvador depend on the $300 he sends home each month from his job as a day laborer. Key provisions of the legislation would require him to return home to apply for residency, pay a $5,000 fine and spend thousands more in application fees."



Overall, there seems to be lots of contradictions and bad ideas, but something is better than nothing...right?

Immigration FAQs

Details of immigration proposal

United States is the 4th Reich?

It is not everyday America gets compared to the Nazi's (well maybe it is).

"We do not have the right to forget the causes of any war, which must be sought in the mistakes and errors of peacetime," Putin said. Moreover, in our time, these threats are not diminishing," he said as he delved into what one expert said was clearly an allusion to U.S. foreign policy. "They are only transforming, changing their appearance. In these new threats - as during the time of the Third Reich - are the same contempt for human life and the same claims of exceptionality and diktat in the world."

ps. Good thing I just finished an entire academic paper on this subject.

Mental Health and the Military

This seems to be buried in the news. This report was released on a Friday, during primary elections season...maybe someone does not want to some information to get around. Information like the fact that length of deployment and separation from family may be a signficant factor in the deterioration of someone's mental health. Mental probelms lead to increased anger and 10 pecent of all surveyed admitted to mistreating a civilian or civilian property. Just a thought, maybe someone should be looking at the mental and physical health of our military men before we have a 'lost generation' on our hands.

Read for yourself here.

Intro to IR Review Session

The review session will be on Tuesday, May 8th at 1pm in room BSB 1171.

Dipomat Speaker

This is not an extra credit event:

Careers in International Affairs

Anthony Benesch

Diplomat in Residence

Come listen to the U.S. State Department’s Diplomat in Residence discuss career opportunities in government service. Internship programs and fellowship opportunities (language programs) will be also be discussed.

May 3^rd (New Day and Time)

Noon, BSB 140

Presented by the UIC Political Science Department

Pizza will be served!

Lecture: Children and War

Panel Discussion on the Recruitment of Child Soldiers Worldwide

Ishmael Beah, author of A Long Way Gone: Memoirs of a Boy Soldier
Jo Becker, Human Rights Watch;
Bernardine Dohrn, Northwestern University;
Lynette Jackson, University of Illinois-Chicago

Thursday, May 3rd, 6:00 pm

University of Illinois at Chicago, Student Center East Room 302
750 South Halsted

COST: FREE

Israel Report

Here is the link for the Israeli government's report on the recent war in Lebanon.