The Big NeoCon

Near perfect example of applying an IR concept to a contemporary movie. Here the Big Lebowski and Neocons are covered.

Bush Behind the Surge

Bush was behind the decision to increase the number of troops in Iraq!?! Its all kinda shocking, my head is spinning a bit. We have evidence of Bush as a bold and decisive leader. The NYTimes released a long article today going the successful surge strategy in Iraq. A must read.

"In January 2007, at a time when the situation in Iraq appeared the bleakest, Mr. Bush chose a bold option that was at odds with what many of his civilian and military advisers, including his field commander, initially recommended. Mr. Bush’s plan to send more than 20,000 troops to carry out a new counterinsurgency strategy has helped to reverse the spiral of sectarian killings in Iraq."

Restrain this

I always said England's support during the recent wars was an example of a restraining alliance.

"Christopher Meyer said that fear explained why Prime Minister Tony Blair chose to stand with US President George W. Bush in his decision to invade Afghanistan in the immediate aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks -- to temper his aggressive battle plans."

Someone got fired

Change in Iraq policy? Didn't the media think to notice this?

"The man chosen by President Bush to become his new "war czar" told Congress on Thursday that national security advisor Stephen Hadley would no longer be responsible for Iraq policy, indicating the administration has quietly engineered a significant change in foreign policy leadership that could directly affect U.S. war strategy."

Quantifying Progress in Iraq

Everyone knows how much I love quantification. So how do we know if there is progress in Iraq? The Brookings Institute (which is supposed to be bipartisan or right leaning) seems have come up with a novel way to do so.

"The Iraq Index is a statistical compilation of economic, public opinion, and security data. This resource will provide updated information on various criteria, including crime, telephone and water service, troop fatalities, unemployment, Iraqi security forces, oil production, and coalition troop strength. The index is designed to quantify the rebuilding efforts and offer an objective set of criteria for benchmarking performance. It is the first in-depth, non-partisan assessment of American efforts in Iraq, and is based primarily on U.S. government information."

Mental Health and the Military

This seems to be buried in the news. This report was released on a Friday, during primary elections season...maybe someone does not want to some information to get around. Information like the fact that length of deployment and separation from family may be a signficant factor in the deterioration of someone's mental health. Mental probelms lead to increased anger and 10 pecent of all surveyed admitted to mistreating a civilian or civilian property. Just a thought, maybe someone should be looking at the mental and physical health of our military men before we have a 'lost generation' on our hands.

Read for yourself here.

Chomskey and Zinn on Vietnam, Iraq, and History

Seems like an interesting interview. Conservatives probably should not read this for fear of heart attacks.

In Rare Joint Interview, Noam Chomsky and Howard Zinn on Iraq, Vietnam, Activism and History

War for Oil?

It is pretty hard to argue that the United States went to war in Iraq to grab oil if the United States fails to get any oil out of the deal. Also, don't forget the price of oil has jumped considerably because of the conflict in Iraq.

And Iraq's big oil contracts go to ...

"Despite claims by some critics that the Bush administration invaded Iraq to take control of its oil, the first contracts with major oil firms from Iraq's new government are likely to go not to U.S. companies, but rather to companies from China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia."

Why did Iran take the British hostage?

There is always a reason why things are done in the world of international politics. Apparently Iran was upset with American attempts to take a few Iranians hostage so they retaliated.

The botched US raid that led to the hostage crisis

"Better understanding of the seriousness of the US action in Arbil - and the angry Iranian response to it - should have led Downing Street and the Ministry of Defence to realise that Iran was likely to retaliate against American or British forces such as highly vulnerable Navy search parties in the Gulf. The two senior Iranian officers the US sought to capture were Mohammed Jafari, the powerful deputy head of the Iranian National Security Council, and General Minojahar Frouzanda, the chief of intelligence of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, according to Kurdish officials."

Borders and War

In addition to territory being a common cause of war, it might also be interesting to look at the proportion of border incidents that become international incidents.

A Deadly U.S.-Iran Firefight

"U.S. soldiers [and] Iraqi forces on a routine joint patrol along the border with Iran, when they spotted two Iranian soldiers retreating from Iraqi territory back into Iran. A moment later, U.S. and Iraqi forces came upon a third Iranian soldier on the Iraqi side of the border, who stood his ground. As U.S. and Iraqi soldiers approached the Iranian officer and began speaking with him, a platoon of Iranian soldiers appeared and moved to surround the coalition patrol, taking up positions on high ground. At that point, according to the Army's statement, the Iranian captain told the U.S. and Iraqi soldiers that if they tried to leave they would be fired on. Fearing abduction by the Iranians, U.S. troops moved to go anyway, and fighting broke out.

No Plan B

Were here one way not to fail, don't have any other options. This should go well...oh, and that dirty word containment is coming up again.

No U.S. Backup Strategy For Iraq

"Pace had a simple way of summarizing the administration's position, Gov. Phil Bredesen (D-Tenn.) recalled. "Plan B was to make Plan A work."
Most options involve partial or complete U.S. redeployment from Baghdad and other violent urban centers, followed by containment of the civil war within Iraq's borders -- keeping out meddlesome neighbors such as Iran and preventing a wider, regional conflict. Retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, a former chief of Central Command, the U.S. military headquarters for the Middle East, said Congress is "drifting toward containment" and predicted that option will soon begin gaining popularity."

We are out of Iron

I have always liked the famous Bismarck quote about diplomacy and force - "The great questions of the day will not be decided by speeches and resolutions of majorities - that was the mistake of 1848 and 1849 - but by iron and blood."

Which leads to the United State's current problem, we are running out of men and tanks to shuttle around the world to scare people. Shame, we might actually have to use diplomacy in the future.

More Sabers to Rattle, Perhaps Fewer to Thrust
"These moves seemed like perfectly logical geopolitical responses to heightened dangers. But they also helped mask another reality. Because the military today does not have enough available ground troops to use for intimidation, the moves were pretty much the only options rather than choices among several."

Coalition of the Willing, No Longer Willing

Our allies are dropping like flies. Next thing you know, the important state of Togo will be gone.

First, Britain...gone

Then, Denmark

Its ok, Cheney is fine with it. He is going to go shot people over there himself if he has to. Soon its just going to be this bear fighting in Iraq.

"In fact, I talked to a friend just the other day who had driven to Baghdad down to Basra, seven hours, found the situation dramatically improved from a year or so ago, sort of validated the British view they had made progress in southern Iraq and that they can therefore reduce their force levels," Cheney said."

Prewar Intelligence Flawed

So it comes out, for like the fifth time, that America's prewar intelligence was flawed and the Pentagon manipulated intelligence findings to suit their own ends (ie. lets invade Iraq everyone).

Prewar Intelligence Unit at Pentagon Is Criticized

By DAVID S. CLOUD and MARK MAZZETTI

"Working under Douglas J. Feith, who at the time was under secretary of defense for policy, the group “developed, produced and then disseminated alternative intelligence assessments on the Iraq and Al Qaeda relationship, which included some conclusions that were inconsistent with the consensus of the Intelligence Community, to senior decision-makers,” the report concluded."

Here is the Executive Summary of the report

The Los Angeles Times has also posted an article detailing the dispute between the Pentagon and CIA.

"There were like 26 points," in the Feith team's paper, Gimble said. "And essentially [experts at other agencies] disagreed with more than 50% of it, and either agreed or partially agreed with the remainder. When the team briefed Tenet and other senior CIA officials on Aug. 15, the audience was polite but unimpressed. Tenet described the meeting as "useful," Gimble said, but "in our interviews with him he later said that he only said that it was 'useful' because he didn't agree with it and he was just trying to, you know, nicely end the meeting."


The NY Times has recently published a popular OpEd piece on the whole issue. I wish someone, ahem Feith (aka the Dark Prince), would go to jail.

Editorial

The Build-a-War Workshop

"A report by the Pentagon inspector general has finally confirmed that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s intelligence office cooked up a link between Iraq and Al Qaeda to help justify an unjustifiable war."

"But the C.I.A. kept saying there was no reliable intelligence about an Iraq-Qaeda link. So Mr. Feith was sent to review the reports and come back with the answers Mr. Cheney wanted. The inspector general’s report said Mr. Feith’ s team gave a September 2002 briefing at the White House on the alleged Iraq-Qaeda connection that had not been vetted by the intelligence community (the director of central intelligence was pointedly not told it was happening) and “was not fully supported by the available intelligence.”

BTW: Cheney doesn't think the VP is part of the executive branch. Be afraid, very afraid.



And More

So now Feith, on NPR, is disputing the accuracy of the report attacking his reports. He seems to think NPR is asking questions based on flawed intelligence (the actual report cited above).

Douglas Feith Responds to Criticism

CHADWICK: What the inspector general's report says is that your office presented findings which appeared to be based on a full reading of intelligence and they were not based on a full reading of intelligence.
Mr. FEITH: That's simply not correct. And I don't believe that's what the inspector general report says. I mean there's an enormous amount of loose talk about this and vague and loose allegations. And it's really - it's very difficult to refute stuff that is so, you know, so thoroughly inaccurate.

PS: Its good we are getting to the bottom of this now, when we can do something about it.

Iraq and the Insurgency

Copter Crashes Suggest Shift in Iraqi Tactics

By RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr. and JAMES GLANZ

Published: February 8, 2007

"American officials say a streak of crashes strongly suggests that insurgents have changed tactics and are putting more effort into shooting down aircraft."

"Historically, improved tactics in shooting down helicopters have provedto be important factors in conflicts in which guerrillas have achieved victories against major powers, including battles in Somalia,Afghanistan and Vietnam."

Video of recent attack here

Update:

Planning Seen in Iraqi Attacks on U.S. Copters

"Documents captured from Iraqi insurgents indicate that some of the recent fatal attacks against American helicopters are a result of a carefully planned strategy to focus on downing coalition aircraft, one that American officials say has been carried out by mounting coordinated assaults with machine guns, rockets and surface-to-air missiles."

War Powers?

What can Congress do you? Pretty much nothing. Interesting article here about Iraq and Congress. I did like the paragraph below.

The Way We Live Now

Whose War Powers?

By NOAH FELDMAN

Published: February 4, 2007

Can Congress tell the president how to fight in Iraq? Should it?

"Congress, though, is not yet prepared to demand an immediate and total pullout from Iraq. Neither are the American people, who seem to understand that precipitate withdrawal could turn the present civil war into a conflict of international scope. The Democratic unwillingness to push the president all the way to the wall reflects the broader political will — at least for the moment."

Simpsons

Marge: Homer no! Revenge never solves anything.
Homer: Then what are we doing in Iraq?

Civil War in Iraq?

Is Iraq a civil war? I say not yet, simply because you need clear policy and issue positions (goals) by each side involved. Iraq hasn't reached that point, it is simply chaos now. Collier, Fearon, and Sambinas are all violating their operational definition of what a civil war is.

Why does this even matter? Simply because not all wars are alike. Different types of wars have different types of causes and solutions. To figure out how to end this conflict, we need to figure out what each side wants and that is not yet clear. Some just want chaos, some want power, some want oil, some want autonomy, and some want to be left alone. In the end, clear leaders and policy positions of each "side" have not yet emerged. Until this happens there is little we can do to end the violence beyond police the state, train the Iraqi military, and focus on economic advancement for the common people.

In any case, Niall Ferguson of Harvard published this nice summary of civil war research in Time. Take a look here.

New NIE

2007 National Intelligence Estimate: Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead

"A much-anticipated assessment of Iraq by America’s intelligence agencies describes a worsening cycle of chaos in the country, and predicts that the sectarian strife will continue to fracture the country without bold actions by Iraqi politicians."

NY Times Summary

Is This a Civil War?
"Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates called the term “civil war” a “bumper-sticker answer” that oversimplified the reality of overlapping conflicts. “I believe that there are essentially four wars going on in Iraq,” he said at a Pentagon briefing today, citing Shia-on-Shia strife, principally in the South; sectarian violence, largely in Baghdad; the Sunni insurgency, and attacks by Al Qaeda."

Positive Notes
"And the assessment says that some developments “could” help to reverse the downward spiral: broader Sunni acceptance of the political structure; concessions by Shiites and Kurds to “create space” for Sunni acceptance, and “a bottom-up approach” to help mend frayed tribal and religious relationships."

Future Dangers
"Widespread fighting could produce “de facto partition” of the country into “three mutually antagonistic parts” and spawn “fierce violence” among Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds for years. A second possibility is that a new strongman could emerge, a Shiite this time, instead of the new democracy envisioned by the Bush administration. Finally, there could be anarchy, with resulting instability and bloodshed."

Internal Rivalry - Iraq

Here is an article about infighting during the Iraqi Parliament's last meeting. Now put your stuff on a camel and shut up.

Iraq Leader and Sunni Officials in Sectarian Clash on Security

"Iraq’s Shiite prime minister and Sunni lawmakers hurled insults at one another during a raucous session of Parliament on Thursday, with the prime minister threatening a Sunni lawmaker with arrest and the Sunni speaker of Parliament threatening to quit.
In the Parliament room, politicians shouted over one another trying to be heard. Mr. Mashhadani finally yelled for everyone to “shut up.” He then used an ancient Arabic phrase, literally meaning to “put your stuff on the camel,” which roughly translates as, “We expect more of this body.” He said in disgust, “I cannot see how it is possible that a new security plan can work.”"