Saturday, February 3, 2007

Civil War in Iraq?

Is Iraq a civil war? I say not yet, simply because you need clear policy and issue positions (goals) by each side involved. Iraq hasn't reached that point, it is simply chaos now. Collier, Fearon, and Sambinas are all violating their operational definition of what a civil war is.

Why does this even matter? Simply because not all wars are alike. Different types of wars have different types of causes and solutions. To figure out how to end this conflict, we need to figure out what each side wants and that is not yet clear. Some just want chaos, some want power, some want oil, some want autonomy, and some want to be left alone. In the end, clear leaders and policy positions of each "side" have not yet emerged. Until this happens there is little we can do to end the violence beyond police the state, train the Iraqi military, and focus on economic advancement for the common people.

In any case, Niall Ferguson of Harvard published this nice summary of civil war research in Time. Take a look here.

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