New Paper

Finished a paper for the Sage Handbook on Conflict Resolution. Territory as a Source of Conflict and a Road to Peace (w/ John Vasquez, UIUC).

'Aqua Teen Hunger Force' Shuts Down Boston

Ok, this whole terrorism thing is getting out of hand. I have no idea how a 15 minute cartoon about a meatwad, box of fries, and shake can cause a terrorism scare.

TV Network Takes Responsibility For 'Hoax Devices'

"Turner Broadcasting plans to take responsibility for the "hoax devices" that were found at several locations in and around Boston Wednesday that forced police bomb units to scramble throughout the area.The incidents were part of a marketing campaign that involved a character from the cartoon show "Aqua Teen Hunger Force.""The 'packages' in question are magnetic lights that pose no danger. They are part of an outdoor marketing campaign in 10 cities in support of Adult Swim's animated television show 'Aqua Teen Hunger Force,'" Turner Broadcasting, the parent company of Cartoon Network, said in a statement."



More (This just keeps getting better): Youtube video of the "devices" that look like "bombs." Yup, so threatening. Excuse me while I go call the cops about the Bud Light sign that has been looking at me funny.

Video of guys who got arrested giving a press conference after getting out of jail. Said press conference was all about 70's hair styles. Fox News was not happy. "Does anyone have any other hair questions?"

Best Week Ever list other potential terrorist threats.

So why did Boston react differently than other cities? And how was this a hoax? These were just cartoons lit up to promote a movie.

Youtube "tribute" video of ATHF "attacks," we will never forget, sniff

Slow News Day

Nothing really has been going on lately. But I have been picking on the Republicans too much lately, so lets all make fun of the Democrats for not having a plan for Iraq.

Holy Socks

Wolfowitz, leading critic of Iraq and warmonger, seems to be having a bad sock day.

"As president of the World Bank, Paul Wolfowitz is clearly not short of a buck or two. So is he just too time-poor to get down to his local mall and invest in a new pair of socks? Known for his sharp suits and hawkish views, he was snapped revealing his inner slob during a visit to the Selimiye mosque in Edirne, western Turkey."

Rivalry Class

Just a reminder, since I myself forgot, there is no Rivalry Seminar this week. You are responsible for a short paper on one international rivalry. Let me know if you have any questions, you may post comments with questions so everyone can get the same info. My webpage has the course syllabus which has the details for the assignment and also links to lists of rivalries. If you go off the list, it must be approved by me.

Dr. Valeriano

PS. No one is allowed to cite or use Wikipedia as a source. Use of web sources is discouraged unless you are referring to events that occurred within the last five years. You generally should cite library materials - first and secondary sources, including journal articles.

PPS. You should have at least five sources, all academic.

PPPS. You should turn the papers in by 5pm. You can slide them under my door or place them in my mailbox in 1101 BSB.

Tortilla Crisis!

Anyone who knows me and my eating habits knows that this recent tortilla price crises troubles me deeply. It may seem like a joke, but global trade patterns do have an effect on people's daily lives. The issue here is raising prices for oil have put ethanol in demand, which as driven up the price of corn.
FYI: my favorite food is a lobster burrito with rice and beans.

A Culinary and Cultural Staple in Crisis
Mexico Grapples With Soaring Prices for Corn -- and Tortillas

"Mexico is in the grip of the worst tortilla crisis in its modern history. Dramatically rising international corn prices, spurred by demand for the grain-based fuel ethanol, have led to expensive tortillas. That, in turn, has led to lower sales for vendors such as Rosales and angry protests by consumers.

The uproar is exposing this country's outsize dependence on tortillas in its diet -- especially among the poor -- and testing the acumen of the new president, Felipe Calderón. It is also raising questions about the powerful businesses that dominate the Mexican corn market and are suspected by some lawmakers and regulators of unfair speculation and monopoly practices."

psst...want some enriched uranium?

Just say no to nuclear materials, they are gateway materials to bombs and terrorism.

Georgia says suspect tried to sell uranium for bomb

"THE safety of Russia's vast nuclear arsenal has been called into question after Georgia revealed that it had arrested a man trying to sell weapons-grade uranium hidden under his jacket."

And this whole thing just keeps getting odd.

Internal Rivalry - Iraq

Here is an article about infighting during the Iraqi Parliament's last meeting. Now put your stuff on a camel and shut up.

Iraq Leader and Sunni Officials in Sectarian Clash on Security

"Iraq’s Shiite prime minister and Sunni lawmakers hurled insults at one another during a raucous session of Parliament on Thursday, with the prime minister threatening a Sunni lawmaker with arrest and the Sunni speaker of Parliament threatening to quit.
In the Parliament room, politicians shouted over one another trying to be heard. Mr. Mashhadani finally yelled for everyone to “shut up.” He then used an ancient Arabic phrase, literally meaning to “put your stuff on the camel,” which roughly translates as, “We expect more of this body.” He said in disgust, “I cannot see how it is possible that a new security plan can work.”"

Iran in Space

This really sounds like a movie, starring Borat, with some Muppets thrown in for laughs.

Iran Set to Try Space Launch

"The move toward an independent space launch capacity is likely to ratchet up concern in the U.S. and Europe about Iran's strategic capabilities and intents. Orbiting its own satellite would send a powerful message throughout the Muslim world about the Shiite regime in Tehran."

Lincoln Park Alderman Challenger

The Michele Smith for 43rd Alderman Campaign is recruiting interns for the upcoming February 27 City of Chicago Municipal election. Learn how campaigns work from the inside by working in any of our fundraising, field, research, and communications operations. To learn more, please visit www.michelesmith.org contact the campaign at 312-643-1511 or e-mail michele4alderman@gmail.com Interns can receive credit if offered by the university. Flexible hours.

Mayor Daley Visit

From Email:
The Mayor is coming to speak January 29th, 2007 (Monday) in the East Terrace near the Inner Circle in Student Center East (SCE) between 12-115. Doors to event will be open from 12-1215. This event is sponsored by the Student Trustee and USG.

State of the Union

The State of the Union is great because the Bears are going to the Super Bowl. We do have a little problem with this whole Iraq stuff. I will be covering this in class, everyone should read/listen/skim etc.
Notice the new "Axis of Evil Lite" of Cuba, Belarus, Sudan, and Burma. Axis of Evil Lite, tastes bad - less filling - easier to invade when you are out of troops.

President Bush’s State of the Union Address

Published: January 23, 2007

A transcript with audio excerpts and analysis by The Times’s David E. Sanger, plus links to related articles and Web sites.

Important points:
"Energy
And this dependence leaves us more vulnerable to hostile regimes, and to terrorists, who could cause huge disruptions of oil shipments and raise the price of oil and do great harm to our economy. It’s in our vital interest to diversify America’s energy supply, and the way forward is through technology.

War on Terror
With the distance of time, we find ourselves debating the causes of conflict and the course we have followed. Such debates are essential when a great democracy faces great questions. Yet one question has surely been settled: that to win the war on terror we must take the fight to the enemy.

In the minds of the terrorists, this war began well before Sept. 11 and will not end until their radical vision is fulfilled. And these past five years have given us a much clearer view of the nature of this enemy. Al Qaeda and its followers are Sunni extremists, possessed by hatred and commanded by a harsh and narrow ideology. Take almost any principle of civilization, and their goal is the opposite. They preach with threats, instruct with bullets and bombs, and promise paradise for the murder of the innocent.

Our enemies are quite explicit about their intentions. They want to overthrow moderate governments, and establish safe havens from which to plan and carry out new attacks on our country....And Osama bin Laden declared: “Death is better than living on this Earth with the unbelievers among us.”

Iraq
This is not the fight we entered in Iraq, but it is the fight we are in. Every one of us wishes this war were over and won. Yet it would not be like us to leave our promises unkept, our friends abandoned, and our own security at risk.

In order to make progress toward this goal, the Iraqi government must stop the sectarian violence in its capital. But the Iraqis are not yet ready to do this on their own. So we are deploying reinforcements of more than 20,000 additional soldiers and marines to Iraq. The vast majority will go to Baghdad, where they will help Iraqi forces to clear and secure neighborhoods, and serve as advisers embedded in Iraqi Army units.

If American forces step back before Baghdad is secure, the Iraqi government would be overrun by extremists on all sides. We could expect an epic battle between Shia extremists backed by Iran, and Sunni extremists aided by Al Qaeda and supporters of the old regime. A contagion of violence could spill out across the country, and in time the entire region could be drawn into the conflict.

Foreign Policy
The United Nations has imposed sanctions on Iran and made it clear that the world will not allow the regime in Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons. Other members of the quartet — the U.N., the E.U., and Russia — Together with our partners in China and Japan, Russia and South Korea, we’re pursuing intensive diplomacy to achieve a Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons. We will continue to speak out for the cause of freedom in places like Cuba, Belarus and Burma and continue to awaken the conscience of the world to save the people of Darfur."

New Defense Secretary is a Hardliner

This article will be important for both classes later in the semester, for now enjoy the idea that might makes right.

Military Memo

Hawkish Gates Sees More Force as Leverage

But a hawk may not be all he is. His favorite quotation from history, he told reporters traveling with him this week for meetings with allies and commanders in Europe and the Middle East, is from Frederick the Great, the 18th century Prussian monarch and gifted musician: “Negotiations without arms are like music books without instruments.”

Or, put another way, it takes military power to create the leverage necessary to make negotiations fruitful.

The World Hates the US

The BBC finds that the world hates America...in other news the rest of the country hates Grossman.

View of US's global role 'worse'

The World Service survey, conducted in 25 nations including the US, found that three in four respondents disapproved of how Washington has dealt with Iraq.

The majority of the 26,381 respondents also disapproved of the way five other foreign policy areas have been handled.

Class Stuff

I do not use Blackboard. I honestly don't know what the fascination is with the program. I will be using the blog to keep everyone posted on news, updates, and class issues. Even if we did have blackboard, I would not post grades there - I tend to think you should have to come to class to get your materials to understand the context of your grade.

If you want to start a discussion thread, email me and I will put one up here. You are encouraged comment on articles or questions I pose here and they will count for participation. I am always on IM (drbvaler) so we do not need chat services.

The email for POLS 184 TAs are rvc80@yahoo.com (Rebecca) and azimel2@uic.edu (Andris)

The question for this week, what do you think the important issues in International Relations will be during the semester (besides Iraq)?

Dr. Valeriano (Go Bears!)

How to download an article

For the rivalry class, and for those who want to download articles from the Vasquez reader, here is how you download a journal article.
Lets start with an article from week four:
Gartzke, E. and M. Simon (1999). "Hot Hand: A Critical Analysis of Enduring Rivalries." Journal of Politics 61(3): 777-98
So the journal is Journal of Politics, 1999, Issue 3
Go to:
http://www.uic.edu/depts/lib/reference/resources/journals/
Search for the Journal of Politics in the open field
Since the article was published in 1999, pick link one, Jstor
At this point you need to log in with your UIC netid, mine is....oh wait
The simple thing to do now would be to just search the journal for the title of the article, in this case Hot Hand. It comes up as the first link, download and print.
Let me know if anyone has any further questions.

China in Space

Here are two linked articles referring to an Arms Race and Rivalry between the United States and China. We will discuss in class next week.

Chinese missile destroys satellite in space

By Richard Spencer in Beijing

Last Updated: 4:26pm GMT 19/01/2007

The Chinese authorities have not confirmed a US report that it blew up one of its own aged weather satellites last Thursday with a ballistic missile fired from the Xichang space centre in Sichuan province.

There is stony silence on the subject in the Chinese media today as concern grows in the US and in the region about the prospect of an arms race in space.

China knows how much America has to lose

By Richard Spencer in Beijing

Last Updated: 4:26pm GMT 19/01/2007

The American public may now be lulled into a false sense of security by the "been there, done that" attitude prevalent in some quarters; or it may be sent into a panic that a new communist rival is about to replace it as Top Nation. But China's leaders will not be taken in by either myth, and will instead keep a cool eye on what really matters.

Despite appearances, what really matters to China is not whether its military and its space programme can catch up with America's.

In the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union engaged in a zero-sum, winner-takes-all competition for supremacy. It was conducted across all fronts: military, economic, philosophical, cultural. It was waged, at different points, in every corner of the world.

Best we can home for?

From now on I will try to post a link to at least one important IR article a week that everyone should read. This week we have:
The Best We Can Hope For
By HELENE COOPER
New York Times
Published: January 14, 2007
Years of bloody but contained mayhem in Iraq wouldn’t exactly be a happy ending. But consider the alternatives.
1. Best Case Option: United States would cajole or force warring Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds to agree to the standard-cookbook negotiated ending to a civil war.There would be some kind of power-sharing deal among the key combatants, yielding an uneasy cease-fire that would have to be policed for a long time by outside peace keepers, since no warring side would trust another.
2. Mid Range Option: Civil War...But, in the end, the Spanish Civil War stayed Spanish. The Europeans sent money and arms and even volunteers, but they didn’t let the war engulf the continent.
3. Worst Case Option: In that picture, the United States would pull its troops out of Iraq, the civil war would accelerate, and the Shiites, financed by Iran, would conquer one Sunni village after another, driving the Sunnis over the borders and into refugee camps in Saudi Arabia and Jordan...War would then spread throughout the region, with nuclear weapons being launched by Iran.

Volunteer Opt

Please Volunteer at the Annual ISA meeting, I will give some extra credit for attendance of a panel:

As you know, ISA will be holding it's 48th Annual Convention in Chicago February 28th through March 3rd, 2007. Every year we have volunteers from local universities assist us. I am writing to ask if you would be willing to let your students know that
we are in need of volunteers.

In exchange for about 4 hours of work, volunteers will be able to attend the convention free of charge. The preliminary program can be viewed here: http://www.isanet.org/chicago2007/. Panel topics span the gamut, and respected scholars from 50+ countries will be presenting their cutting edge research. Volunteer times are flexible and volunteers usually assist us with handing out name-badges or unpacking programs.

They can contact me directly (via email or phone) and I will give them the details, at which time they can decide if they would like to volunteer.

Lyn Brabant
ema@email.arizona.edu

Independent Study

I am still taking students for independent study. I am gathering a group to study the dynamics of immigration. Let me know if you are interested.

Project Summary

This project will collect data for a dyadic global immigration dataset that will cover all countries (nation-states) in the world from 1950 until 2005. The goal of this research is to account for and collect data regarding global immigration trends since 1950. Immigration is a “hot topic” throughout the world; the problem is that the issue has not been studied in a systematic way. No researcher has collected data as to the levels and trends of immigration for the entire world, instead all focus on individual countries and short time periods. It is hoped that with this new dataset researchers will be able to systematically answer questions regarding the causes and consequences of immigration patterns in the modern interstate era.
Dyadic inflows and outflows of peoples for every country in the world will be collected from the years 1950 to 2005. We will begin with 1950 since this represents the stabilization of the international system after World War II. Future research would extend the dataset back till 1815, but we must first focus on the modern era. The data will be extended as far into the present day as possible.
Collection of data is a very labor-intensive project. This is probably why there is currently no dataset in existence to cover this issue. Each person collecting data needs to check sources by hand to find inflow and outflow data for individual countries. This information is usually not located on the internet and must be obtained by archival research. Another particular problem is authorized versus unauthorized immigration. Unauthorized immigration includes refugee flows and illegal immigration. Authorized immigration includes work based and family based immigration, as well as accepted refugee inflows. Both unauthorized and authorized data will be collected, but I anticipate unauthorized immigration data will be the most incomplete variable in the study, therefore the focus will be on authorized immigration flows.
Each researcher assisting on the project will take five countries and code dyadically all interactions for their country in an excel file. Undergraduates are suitable for the project in that it does not require any advanced skills (besides possible language abilities). The main requirement is the ability to hunt for data in the archives. I am confident the data is out there, it just has to be found by researchers.

Dissertation

My dissertation is now back online, it can be found here

Syllabus 184

The Syllabus for 184, Intro to International Relations, can be found here

Syllabus 389

The Syllabus for 389, Seminar: Interstate Rivalry can be found here