Venezuela vs. the United States

Developing rivalry, maybe...to be settled on the soccer field.

Arms Race 2007
Venezuela Spending on Arms Soars to World’s Top Ranks

"Venezuelan military and government officials here say the arms acquisitions, which include dozens of fighter jets and attack helicopters and 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles, are needed to circumvent a ban by the United States on sales of American weapons to the country. They also argue that Venezuela must strengthen its defenses to counter potential military aggression from the United States."

Complex Rivalry? US-Venezuela-Bolivia?
Venezuela Rivals U.S. in Aid to Bolivia

"Since Mr. Morales became president little more than a year ago, Venezuela has quickly come to rival the United States as Bolivia’s main patron. It has provided assistance for the army, cattle ranches, soybean cultivation, microfinance projects, urban sanitation companies and the oil industry."

It is a good thing there has been so much tension lately because the United States will be playing the Copa America this summer. Its going to be held in Venezuela so that should be fun for America's players, I hear a cell phone battery to the head doesn't hurt that much.

We are out of Iron

I have always liked the famous Bismarck quote about diplomacy and force - "The great questions of the day will not be decided by speeches and resolutions of majorities - that was the mistake of 1848 and 1849 - but by iron and blood."

Which leads to the United State's current problem, we are running out of men and tanks to shuttle around the world to scare people. Shame, we might actually have to use diplomacy in the future.

More Sabers to Rattle, Perhaps Fewer to Thrust
"These moves seemed like perfectly logical geopolitical responses to heightened dangers. But they also helped mask another reality. Because the military today does not have enough available ground troops to use for intimidation, the moves were pretty much the only options rather than choices among several."

Iran and Pro-Israel Lobby

So the Pro-Israel Lobby seems to be pushing for confrontation against Iran.

Here is a recent AIPAC report on Iran and nuclear capabilities.
"A second resolution including an arms embargo, enforced travel bans, asset freezes and other economic sanctions could bring more pressure to bear on an Iranian government and further stimulate internal forces already pushing the regime to abandon its nuclear pursuit."

Which now lets me link to a set of papers by Mearsheimer and Walt about the Pro-Israel Lobby. I make no judgments regarding the substance of their arguments, that is for you to decide on. My main problem is the lack of systematic analysis. This is typical ransacking of history to get results you want to support an argument.

"The Israel Lobby," London Review of Books, Vol. 28, No. 6 (March 23, 2006)

Full paper, long
"The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy," Faculty Research Working Paper No. RWP06-011, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, March 13, 2006.

Realism in the Middle East

Might makes right...so this should work out well for everyone because everyone knows the best way to protect yourself and prevent violence, is to have weapons. Makes sense, sure.

Arab States, Wary of Iran, Add to Their Arsenals but Still Lean on the U.S.

"As tensions with Iran rise, many Persian Gulf countries have come to see themselves as the likely first targets of an Iranian attack."

“We believe there is a need for power to protect peace, and strong people with the capability to respond are the real protectors of peace,” said Sheik Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the president of the United Arab Emirates and ruler of the emirate of Abu Dhabi, at the exposition. “That is why we are keen to maintain the efficiency of ourarmed forces.”

Latinos and the Military

Apparently Ken Burn's new WWII documentary fails to mention the contributions of Latinos during World War II. I know my own grandfather was proud of his service and medals. Here is a paper on Latinos and the military, comments to follow.
The U.S. Military and Latino Populations: Accommodation and Resistance

Coalition of the Willing, No Longer Willing

Our allies are dropping like flies. Next thing you know, the important state of Togo will be gone.

First, Britain...gone

Then, Denmark

Its ok, Cheney is fine with it. He is going to go shot people over there himself if he has to. Soon its just going to be this bear fighting in Iraq.

"In fact, I talked to a friend just the other day who had driven to Baghdad down to Basra, seven hours, found the situation dramatically improved from a year or so ago, sort of validated the British view they had made progress in southern Iraq and that they can therefore reduce their force levels," Cheney said."

ISA 2007

So I mentioned that I will be at the International Studies Association Meeting in Chicago. All events are at the Hilton Hotel, 720 S. Michigan. You can use these events for extra credit. This is a registration event so someone might ask for a badge, but I doubt it. Here are my events, more details to come:

>>>>
Persistent Insecurity
WD18 Wednesday 3:45 - 5:30 PM
RM: Lake Ontario 8th FL

International Intervenors’ Theories of Change and the Implied Intermediary Stages of PeacebuildingThe Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
Susanna P. Campbell

Regional Causes of Persistent Insecurity: State-centered International Interventions and the Challenge of RegionalThe Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
Christof P. Kurz

The UN Security Council’s Response to the “Privatization” of Contemporary TerrorismConflict Systems
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Monika Heupel

Understanding the Role of Non-state Armed Actors in the "Limbo" of Post-Conflict State BuildingThe Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
Dipali Mukhopadhyay

University of Illinois at Chicago
Brandon Valeriano
Discussant(s)

>>>>>
FA34 Friday 8:30 - 10:15 AM
International Rivalries
RM 4E 4th FL

Avalanches and Olive Branches: Natural Disasters and Peacemaking between Interstate RivalsUniversity of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Seden Akcinaroglu
Canisius College
Jonathan M. DiCicco
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Elizabeth Radziszewski

Dyadic Conflict and Rivalry CreationUniversity of Kentucky
Daniel S. Morey

Fatal Attraction: Rivalries and Third Party InterventionUniversity of Alabama-Birmingham
Renato Corbetta

Modeling Complex Interstate Rivalries
University of Illinois at Chicago
Brandon Valeriano

>>>>>>
SB14 Saturday 10:30 AM - 12:15 PM
Recent Theory and Research on Conflict Resolution
RM: Lake Ontario 8th FL

From Peacekeeping via Peacemaking to PeacebuildingUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Paul F. Diehl

Negotiation and Conflict ResolutionJohns Hopkins University
I. William Zartman

Territory as a Source of Conflict and a Road to Peace
University of Illinois at Chicago
Brandon Valeriano
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
John A. Vasquez

The Relevance of Mediation in the 21st Century
University of Canterbury
Jacob Bercovitch

Domestic Politics and Rivalry

Everyone in the Rivalry class should read this and be prepared to talk about it in class this week. Also the Russia stuff including the new post. Click on the rivalry topics tab.

Iran reformists want U.S. to tone it down

"This has been a source of frustration to Iran's reformists, who dealt the president's party a blow at the polls in local elections in December but complain that the Bush administration's threatening rhetoric has pulled the rug out from under them.
"Mr. Ahmadinejad tries to make the international situation worse and worse. And now with the U.N. Security Council resolution, he can say, 'Look, we are in a dangerous position, and nobody can say anything against us, because the enemy is coming into the country.' Exactly like George W. Bush in Washington, D.C. They are helping each other. They need each other, I believe."
If Iranians perceive a foreign threat, he said, "they don't pay attention anymore to differences, and the problem they have between parties and governments doesn't matter anymore."

Women-Gender Security Workshop

Like I mentioned in class last week, Rivalry class will be canceled on Tuesday, February 27 because I am the discussant on a panel, details below. Anyone who wants to come is welcome. Class will be made up at a later date. This event is part of the International Studies Conference which is in Chicago this month. I will also post notes as to my speaking events as things get closer to the conference.

Location:
Hilton Chicago, 720 Michigan Ave.
3pm

Event:
Gendering Traditional Security Theories
Lauren Wilcox, "Gendering the Offense-Defense Debate"
Laura Sjoberg, "Power Transitions, Hegemonic Masculinities and IR: A Feminist
Take on the Rise and Fall of States"
Christine Sylvester, Discussant
Brandon Valeriano, Discussant

Education as a force for peace?

An important concept behind Liberalism as a theory is that through reason and education, human-kind can overcome any problem. To that end, we know have the $100 laptop for developing countries (but I can't help but thing most of our inner city schools could probably use it first).

The £50 laptop to change the world

"The long awaited $100 (£50) mini-computer from the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) initiative, is aimed at improving the quality of education in developing nations.
The XO laptop (its proper name) will be sold...to the governments of developing nations in bulk and then distributed without charge to school-age children.
OLPC insists that “it will come with at least two of three options: a crank, a pedal, or a pull-cord” and children will be able to generate power themselves at a ratio of 10 minutes of use per one minute of manual charging."

Death to the Wiki!

I am as much of a fan of Wikipedia as the next guy. Where else are you going to get up the minute updates on the state of Britney's shaved head or find out who is currently in Broken Social Scene? But I am adopting the same policy, no one should ever quote Wikipedia at a major University.

Middlebury College History Department Limits Students' Use of Wikipedia

"Members of the Vermont institution's history department voted unanimously in January to adopt the statement, which bans students from citing the open-source encyclopedia in essays and examinations. "Whereas Wikipedia is extraordinarily convenient and, for some general purposes, extremely useful, it nonetheless suffers inevitably from inaccuracies deriving in large measure from its unique manner of compilation," the statement reads. "Students are responsible for the accuracy of information they provide, and they cannot point to Wikipedia or any similar source that may appear in the future to escape the consequences of errors." The problem with Wikipedia, in many scholars' eyes, is its open editing system. The site permits unregistered, anonymous users to edit content alongside more traditionally qualified contributors."

The Evil Mr. John Bolton

John Bolton, our former Ambassador to the UN, recently entered the news again as a critic of the North Korea agreement. I think its time we go back over the history of our walrus-like former diplomat. My favorite events of the Bolton saga:

1. He looks like a walrus, or shaggy dog.

2. He thought it might be a good idea to lose ten floors of the UN...with the people in it.
"In a 1994 speech at the liberal World Federalist Association, Bolton declared that “There is no such thing as the United Nations.” To underscore his point, Bolton said: “If the UN secretary building in New York lost ten stories, it wouldn't make a bit of difference.”

3. He believes the best way to deal with North Korea is to destroy it. Way to negotiate John!
"Asked by the New York Times what the administration's policy on North Korea is, Bolton "strode over to a bookshelf, pulled off a volume and slapped it on the table. It was called 'The End of North Korea.'" "'That,' he said, 'is our policy.'"

4. He was a congressisonal recess appointment as the UN ambassador, mainly because everyone in the Senate hated him. While on a temp appointment, he acted like he had the authority of an appointed officer.

5. Everyone in the UN hated him:
"A July 23 New York Times article by Warren Hoge reported deep scorn for John Bolton among UN ambassadors, even from countries close to the United States. “Envoys say he has in fact endangered that effort by alienating traditional allies. They say he combatively asserts American leadership, contests procedures at the mannerly, rules-bound United Nations, and then shrugs off the organization when it does not follow his lead.”

6. He didn't want a recount in Florida in 2000.
"Bolton's “most memorable moment came after the U.S. Supreme Court ordered a halt to the recount, when Mr. Bolton strode into a Tallahassee library, where the count was still going on, and declared: ‘I'm with the Bush-Cheney team, and I'm here to stop the count'.”

7. He believe himself to be a human grenade, yes really:
"In his office at the State Department, Bolton displayed a mock grenade with the label: “To John Bolton—World's Greatest Reaganite” (Washington Post, March 8, 2005)."

8. After Iraq, he wanted to go to war with Iran, Syria, and North Korea. We should have just throw in Burma, Venezuela, and China for good measure while we were at it.
"In February 2003, Bolton said that once regime change plans in Iraq were completed, “It will be necessary to deal with threats from Syria, Iran, and North Korea afterwards” (Foreign Policy In Focus, February 20, 2003)."

9. He thinks it might be a good idea to recognize Taiwan as a state, a condition China has assured the international community would be a cause for war.
"“Diplomatic recognition of Taiwan would be just the kind of demonstration of U.S. leadership that the region needs and that many of its people hope for. The notion that China would actually respond with force is a fantasy.”

10. Opps, forgot about war with Cuba.
"Bolton argued that Cuba should be included among the “axis of evil” countries because of its alleged development of biowarfare capacity. Cuba is world renowned for its biomedical industry, but according to Bolton the industry was concealing a WMD project. Providing no evidence for his allegations, Bolton said that Cuba was involved in the sales of illicit biowarfare technology in part as a way to boost its cash-short economy."

11. Did I mention he looks like a walrus? Ladies and Gentlemen, John Bolton, an American hero

Balancing against the United States

Like I keep saying, realism and other theories we talk about in class are still relevant in this day and age. India, China and Russia are working towards a counter coalition to 'check' American power. Underline all the classic realist terms.


Giants meet to counter US power
"Foreign ministers from the three emerging giants met in Delhi yesterday to discuss ways to build a more democratic “multipolar world”. The foreign ministers, Pranab Mukherjee, Li Zhao Xing and Sergei Lavrov, emphasised that theirs was not an alliance against the United States. It was, “on the contrary, intended to promote international harmony and understanding”, a joint communiqué stated...The subtext, however, was clear: how to use their growing economic and political muscle to prevent Washington from tackling such issues alone. “In the long term, they feel that the whole structure of international relations has to shift in their direction,” said Vinod C. Khanna, of the Institute of Chinese Studies, Delhi. “What has happened is that quite independently they’ve reacted very similarly to recent international events.”

North Korea Makes Nice

So a wrap of the North Korea news is in order. We won, might makes right! I am just kidding. It seems that the multilateral approach with the heavy support of South Korea and China was the tipping factor.

What caused the deal?

Outside Pressures Broke Korean Deadlock

By DAVID E. SANGER

"For Mr. Bush, bogged down in Iraq, his authority undercut by the November elections, any chance to show progress in peacefully disarming a country that detonated a nuclear test just four months ago could no longer be passed up. As one senior administration official said over the weekend, the prospect that Mr. Bush might leave Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and North Korea more dangerous places than he found them “can’t be very appealing.”
"For Mr. Kim, the nuclear explosion — more of a fizzle — that he set off in the mountains not far from the Chinese border in October turned out to be a strategic mistake. The Chinese, who spent six decades protecting the Kim family dynasty, responded by cutting off his military aid, and helping Washington crack down on the banks that financed the Cognac-and-Mercedes lifestyle of the North Korean leadership."

Who hates the deal? John Bolton does

Pact With North Korea Draws Fire From a Wide Range of Critics in U.S.

By HELENE COOPER and JIM YARDLEY

"From the other end of the spectrum, John R. Bolton, who until December served under Ms. Rice as the United States ambassador to the United Nations, criticized the pact as too weak, telling CNN that it “contradicts fundamental premises” of the administration’s approach to North Korea during the past six years."

the Germans

Private Talks Held in Berlin Spurred Sides to Reach Deal

By JIM YARDLEY

Published: February 14, 2007

A meeting between American and North Korean envoys in late December would be critical in shaping the agreement reached Tuesday in Beijing.

Japan is still a little upset about the abductions

Japan Maintains Hardline Stance Toward North Korea

By NORIMITSU ONISHI

"Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was criticized over his government’s refusal to join in providing aid to North Korea under the new nuclear agreement."

“Japanese diplomacy has, so to speak, been abducted by the abduction issue,” Mr. Taniguchi said.
The Japanese government said it hoped to address the abduction issue in a working group to be established under the accord, aimed at normalizing relations between Japan and North Korea. Tokyo has said in the past that it could not establish normal relations or pay reparations for its colonial rule of Korea before World War II unless the abducted Japanese citizens were accounted for. But Japan’s emphasis on the abductions in the working group is likelyto bring forth a long list of historical grievances from North Korea."

Update:
Is the NK agreement Bush's defining legacy?

For Bush, a `Nixon to China' moment

"But the agreement American negotiators have forged with North Korea brings to mind a happier precedent: Richard Nixon's opening to China, a surprising breakthrough that belied his hard-line record and shrewdly advanced American interests in a vital part of the world."

War in Iran

Good Newsweek article here, comments to come

Other Blogs

Here are two pieces I couldn't resist linking:

McCain is waiting for Tet (which btw was a major military victory)
No longer even loosely tethered to reality, John WALNUTS! McCain is now making his worst fears public: that something could happen in Iraq that might possibly turn Americans against the war!

Obama is uppity (and also articulate)
The answer is no, the article, which focuses on Obama's transformation since his 2000 House campaign, doesn't get any less nasty, although it doesn't explicitly repeat the racially loaded term "uppity" (that choice, apparently, belongs to whoever does the front page of Salon).

My New Idol

Forget the new Harvard Pres, here is my new idol.



Campus Revolutionary
Tony Marx has a radical plan to get more poor kids into top colleges, starting with Amherst

"When Marx finally met the committee, he made an impassioned appeal. Elite U.S. colleges such as Amherst, he said, are perpetuating deep inequalities in American society. They equate success with serving the privileged elite and have largely abandoned talented youth from poor families, he charged. This deepens the country's growing class divisions and exacerbates the long-term decline in economic and social mobility. Feeling he had nothing to lose since he hadn't sought the job, Marx exhorted the trustees to tackle the problem head-on. "I'm not interested in being a custodian over a privileged place," he remembers telling the gathering of wealthy alums and academic stars that day."

Amherst Bio

International Cooperation Day

I dub today international cooperation day.

First Bush plays down talk of invading Iran.

Bush Softens Rhetoric on Iran Relations

"President Bush on Monday sought to dampen speculation about a U.S. military strike on Iran as the Islamic republic's president softened his tone, too, and said he wanted dialogue rather than confrontation.
We shy away from any kind of conflict, any kind of bloodshed," Ahmadinejad told ABC's "Good Morning America." "As we have said repeatedly, we think that the world problems can be solved through dialogue, through the use of logic and a sense of friendship. There is no need for the use of force."

And then, we seem to have come to some sort of agreement with North Korea

Draft Accord Reached in North Korea Nuclear Talks

By JIM YARDLEY

"Negotiators reached a draft agreement on a deal to begin disarming North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, the chief U.S. negotiator said. The deal is now being reviewed by the governments of the six nations in the talks.
The fate of the deal appears to rest with the North Korean delegation’s winning approval from the country’s authoritarian leader, Kim Jong-il. The deal is expected to require North Korea to close and seal its main nuclear reactor within six weeks and also allow international nuclear inspectors into the country for the first time in more than four years. North Korea would receive energy and economic assistance, as well as security guarantees, but the timetable for these rewards remained unclear."

Also covered in Washington Post and AP

Its a good day when America does not threaten war on anyone.

Update:
Some final notes about North Korea accord

Tenuous deal for North Korea
"After North Korea agreed to start dismantling its nuclear program in return for oil and economic aid, Mr. Hill, in Beijing, noted that "the first difference" between this deal and earlier failed efforts "is to make this really a multilateral effort."

Vanderbilt in India

An old Vanderbilt friend has been teaching in India, he sent this plea regarding some charity work.

"Over Christmas break, Ryan spent three weeks in a small village in India- Kothasatram. Here, they have no clean water (they drink whatever water they can get out of coconut juice, own two articles of clothing that they wear every day, and are homeless. Partnered with the Association of Relief Volunteers (ARV) in India, Ryan is trying to rewrite these children’s fate by launching the “Child Feeding Center.”

Read more here

Ryan's email is rc_paugh[AT]yahoo.com

Russia still hates the United States

After all the news about Iraq and Iran, its good to have a golden oldie come back. Look forward to the "US-Russia Rivalry, Part II - Don't Call it a Comeback" soon on Fox News.

Putin: Washington's militarism has fostered global instability

"Russian President Vladimir V. Putin harshly criticized U.S. foreign policy today, telling an international conference packed with senior American and European officials that Washington's militarism has fostered global instability and forced vulnerable nations to seek nuclear weapons."

Putin Says U.S. Is Undermining Global Stability

By THOM SHANKER and MARK LANDLER

Published: February 11, 2007

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia accused the United States of provoking a new nuclear arms race.
“Primarily the United States has overstepped its national borders, and in every area,” said Mr. Putin. American military actions, which he termed “unilateral” and “illegitimate,” also “have not been able to resolve any matters at all,” and, he said, have created only more instability and danger."

Gates Disputes Putin’s Criticisms of U.S. Power

By THOM SHANKER

Published: February 11, 2007

““As an old Cold Warrior, one of yesterday’s speeches almost filled me with nostalgia for a less complex time,” Mr. Gates said. He paused for effect before adding, “Almost.”



Update:
Domestic rivalry stuff, as covered by the NY Times

No Cold War, Perhaps, but Surely a Lukewarm Peace
"And with presidential elections in both countries coming in 2008, it is unlikely to get better, since candidates rarely score points at home by being conciliatory abroad...The countries are now openly competing for influence in Europe, in the Caucasus and in Central Asia,where access to natural resources and military bases has become paramount for both."

Prewar Intelligence Flawed

So it comes out, for like the fifth time, that America's prewar intelligence was flawed and the Pentagon manipulated intelligence findings to suit their own ends (ie. lets invade Iraq everyone).

Prewar Intelligence Unit at Pentagon Is Criticized

By DAVID S. CLOUD and MARK MAZZETTI

"Working under Douglas J. Feith, who at the time was under secretary of defense for policy, the group “developed, produced and then disseminated alternative intelligence assessments on the Iraq and Al Qaeda relationship, which included some conclusions that were inconsistent with the consensus of the Intelligence Community, to senior decision-makers,” the report concluded."

Here is the Executive Summary of the report

The Los Angeles Times has also posted an article detailing the dispute between the Pentagon and CIA.

"There were like 26 points," in the Feith team's paper, Gimble said. "And essentially [experts at other agencies] disagreed with more than 50% of it, and either agreed or partially agreed with the remainder. When the team briefed Tenet and other senior CIA officials on Aug. 15, the audience was polite but unimpressed. Tenet described the meeting as "useful," Gimble said, but "in our interviews with him he later said that he only said that it was 'useful' because he didn't agree with it and he was just trying to, you know, nicely end the meeting."


The NY Times has recently published a popular OpEd piece on the whole issue. I wish someone, ahem Feith (aka the Dark Prince), would go to jail.

Editorial

The Build-a-War Workshop

"A report by the Pentagon inspector general has finally confirmed that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s intelligence office cooked up a link between Iraq and Al Qaeda to help justify an unjustifiable war."

"But the C.I.A. kept saying there was no reliable intelligence about an Iraq-Qaeda link. So Mr. Feith was sent to review the reports and come back with the answers Mr. Cheney wanted. The inspector general’s report said Mr. Feith’ s team gave a September 2002 briefing at the White House on the alleged Iraq-Qaeda connection that had not been vetted by the intelligence community (the director of central intelligence was pointedly not told it was happening) and “was not fully supported by the available intelligence.”

BTW: Cheney doesn't think the VP is part of the executive branch. Be afraid, very afraid.



And More

So now Feith, on NPR, is disputing the accuracy of the report attacking his reports. He seems to think NPR is asking questions based on flawed intelligence (the actual report cited above).

Douglas Feith Responds to Criticism

CHADWICK: What the inspector general's report says is that your office presented findings which appeared to be based on a full reading of intelligence and they were not based on a full reading of intelligence.
Mr. FEITH: That's simply not correct. And I don't believe that's what the inspector general report says. I mean there's an enormous amount of loose talk about this and vague and loose allegations. And it's really - it's very difficult to refute stuff that is so, you know, so thoroughly inaccurate.

PS: Its good we are getting to the bottom of this now, when we can do something about it.

Iranapalooza!

All Iran, all the time on this blog! I can't wait for the war in '08 (not really).

United States within our firing range says Iran
So first Iran tell us that we are 'within their firing range."

"Americans have surrounded us but it works to our advantage. They are within our firing range in the east, west and elsewhere," Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati said. He was referring to the US military presence in neighbouring Iraq and Afghanistan as well as in the Gulf waters off southern Iran. "Would you dare to violate Iranian borders? See what harm will be done to you then," said Jananti, who heads the hardline electoral watchdog the Guardians Council."

Deadliest bomb in Iraq made by Iran
And then we were like, "stop giving weapons to Iraqis." (in my best OC accent)

"The most lethal weapon directed against American troops in Iraq is an explosive-packed cylinder that United States intelligence asserts is being supplied by Iran. The assertion of an Iranian role in supplying the device to Shiite militias reflects broad agreement among American intelligence agencies, although officials acknowledge that the picture is not entirely complete. "

Target Iran by US

And the British were like, stop or the US is gonna invade, mate (see cartoon). Look for the cycle to repeat itself next week and for the next two years. In the meantime I will just repost this same news with different links. Cheers

"US preparations for an air strike against Iran are at an advanced stage, in spite of repeated public denials by the Bush administration, according to informed sources in Washington. The present military build-up in the Gulf would allow the US to mount an attack by the spring. But the sources said that if there was an attack, it was more likely next year, just before Mr Bush leaves office."

Military Buildups as a cause of war: "In another sign that preparations are under way, Mr Bush has ordered oil reserves to be stockpiled. The danger is that the build-up could spark an accidental war."

Btw, damn the Neocons:
"Neo-conservatives, particularly at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, are urging Mr Bush to open a new front against Iran."

Update

Iran Defiant, but Wants Nuclear Talks

So then Iran said, buzz off, but we may be nice, maybe.

"President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad struck a defiant yet vague tone on Sunday, telling Iranians during the 28th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution that their country would not give up uranium enrichment but was prepared to negotiate."

300 Movie

I keep mentioning this movie, looks good. Hopefully it will be related to International Relations in some way.

300 Movie

"The film 300 is faithfully adapted from the graphic novel 300 by Frank Miller in which Spartan King Leonidas and 300 Spartans fought to the last man against Persian King Xerxes and his massive army. Facing insurmountable odds, the Spartans' heroism and sacrifice inspires all of Greece to unite against the Persian invaders. The story is loosely based on the Battle of Thermopylae which took place in the summer of 480 BC."

Jeffery Sachs

Jeffrey Sachs lecture on "Ending Global Poverty" Monday, February 12, 11:30am Rockefeller Memorial Chapel, 5850 S Woodlawn Jeffrey Sachs is Director of the Earth Institute and Professor of Sustainable Development and Health Policy and Management at Columbia University. He is also the author of "The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time." This event is cosponsored by the Human Rights Program, School of Social
Service Administration, Rockefeller Memorial Chapel, and Chicago Promise. For more information, call the Human Rights Program at 773-834-0957

*Students can get extra credit if they go to this, sounds interesting. And he was on MTV.

Brain Scans

I mentioned before that I think this is where conflict research needs to go. Here is an article about a new brain scan method that seems to work. The question is how will this be used in the future?

The brain scan that can read people's intentions

"The research breaks controversial new ground in scientists' ability to probe people's minds and eavesdrop on their thoughts, and raises serious ethical issues over how brain-reading technology may be used in the future.
The team used high-resolution brain scans to identify patterns of activity before translating them into meaningful thoughts, revealing what a person planned to do in the near future. It is the first time scientists have succeeded in reading intentions in this way."

Why are there so few faculty of color?

This article looks at the reasons why there are few minorities teaching full time with Ph.D.s. I have faced many of the same problems, which include:

• Less financial backing, so the idea of taking this fairly lengthy period of time to work on a Ph.D. is probably more difficult (I am still poor)
  
• Lack of mentoring (not me, Vasquez has always been great)
• Insufficient interest among senior faculty in some topics and journals that minority candidates are disproportionately drawn to (and how many IR faculty cover Latino issues?)
  
• The saddling of young minority hires with extra responsibilities to be mentors to minority students and participate in committees (not complaining here, its a duty)
  
• Feelings of isolation among minority faculty
  

Iran is going to 'comprehensive(ly) react"

Iran is coming to get us, once we invade. In the meantime, call the hotline.

Iran to Hit U.S. Interests if Attacked

"Speaking to a gathering of air force commanders, Khamenei said: "The enemy knows well that any invasion would be followed by a comprehensive reaction to the invaders and their interests all over the world."
"In his column, Zarif said Bush's plan to send an additional 21,500 troop to Iraq "can only be expected to worsen tension and increase the possibility of unintended escalation." He called instead for intensified regional cooperation on Iraq, saying a proposed meeting next month of Iraq's neighbors in Baghdad would be "a good place to begin."

True believers dial messiah hotline in Iran

Energized by president's beliefs, end-of-timers redouble their outreach.

By Scott Peterson | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

"They say that return - which they believe will happen soon - will prompt a global battle between good and evil (not unlike biblical "Armageddon" interpretations), and herald an era of justice, peace, and the ultimate triumph of Shiite Islam.
Mr. Ahmadinejad's cabinet has given $17 million to Jamkaran. Staff at the Bright Future Institute downplay his interest, arguing the amount is just $2-3 million, and that their effort is privately funded. They claim that former President Mohammad Khatami also spent "a lot" on Jamkaran.
Critics in Iran and outside dismiss end-of-timers as unscientific, traditional followers of myths. To counter those critics, the institute's news agency, online at www.bfnews.ir, began churning out reports three months ago."

Here are two more articles from sources of unknown quality:
Iran prepares people for messiah miracles
Iran leader's messianic end-times mission
Here is a history piece:
The Role of Hidden Imam in the history and the politics of the Islamic republic of Iran

Iraq and the Insurgency

Copter Crashes Suggest Shift in Iraqi Tactics

By RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr. and JAMES GLANZ

Published: February 8, 2007

"American officials say a streak of crashes strongly suggests that insurgents have changed tactics and are putting more effort into shooting down aircraft."

"Historically, improved tactics in shooting down helicopters have provedto be important factors in conflicts in which guerrillas have achieved victories against major powers, including battles in Somalia,Afghanistan and Vietnam."

Video of recent attack here

Update:

Planning Seen in Iraqi Attacks on U.S. Copters

"Documents captured from Iraqi insurgents indicate that some of the recent fatal attacks against American helicopters are a result of a carefully planned strategy to focus on downing coalition aircraft, one that American officials say has been carried out by mounting coordinated assaults with machine guns, rockets and surface-to-air missiles."

Obama at UIC

From email:

JOIN US AND MAKE HISTORY!!!
THIS SUNDAY
FEBRUARY, 11TH
AT THE UIC PAVILION
DOORS OPEN AT 3:30 pm SHARP

There are a VERY LIMITED number of free tickets available to students; tickets will be distributed on FIRST COME basis. Don't miss out on this historic event. In order to get free tickets
Contact me at 407-361-4687
Umair Mamsa

Puppy

Everyone seems to like the puppy, so here are a bunch of pics. Sorry if it is just too much cuteness for you.

War Powers?

What can Congress do you? Pretty much nothing. Interesting article here about Iraq and Congress. I did like the paragraph below.

The Way We Live Now

Whose War Powers?

By NOAH FELDMAN

Published: February 4, 2007

Can Congress tell the president how to fight in Iraq? Should it?

"Congress, though, is not yet prepared to demand an immediate and total pullout from Iraq. Neither are the American people, who seem to understand that precipitate withdrawal could turn the present civil war into a conflict of international scope. The Democratic unwillingness to push the president all the way to the wall reflects the broader political will — at least for the moment."

International Latino Politics

We are falling behind in Intro to IR, so I am going to have to cut the lecture on Latinos and the National Interest. The paper this lecture was going to be based on can be found here. I apologize, I understand some of you were actually looking forward to covering this topic. In the future I will be teaching a course called International Latino Politics. My temp syllabus can be found here. I am not sure when I will teaching this.

Class Easter Egg

Just to see who is actually checking the blog for class info and to be nice because today is the Super Bowl (tm), the paper summarizing my dissertation is not due until Tuesday during class.

Falklands Redux

It will soon be the 25th anniversary of the Falklands War. My blog will holding a celebration all year. In honor of the event, I am going out right now to buy a Bears wool sweatshirt made of Falklands sheep (sheep outnumber people 200-1).

Apparently, Britain and Argentina are still fighting over the territorial issues.

Falkland Islands An Unsettled Issue 25 Years After War: Contending Claims by Argentina, Britain Burden Relations as Anniversary Nears

"The windblown archipelago is once again claiming headlines here, climbing back near the top of Argentina's international agenda a quarter-century after its military surrendered the territory to Britain.

Last week Argentina aimed yet another rhetorical dart at Britain, publicly reasserting its claim to islands it says were stolen by the English in 1833. The British should be getting the message by now: President Nestor Kirchner's government in the past year has issued official complaints concerning rights to the islands at a rate of more than one per month."

Simpsons

Marge: Homer no! Revenge never solves anything.
Homer: Then what are we doing in Iraq?

Civil War in Iraq?

Is Iraq a civil war? I say not yet, simply because you need clear policy and issue positions (goals) by each side involved. Iraq hasn't reached that point, it is simply chaos now. Collier, Fearon, and Sambinas are all violating their operational definition of what a civil war is.

Why does this even matter? Simply because not all wars are alike. Different types of wars have different types of causes and solutions. To figure out how to end this conflict, we need to figure out what each side wants and that is not yet clear. Some just want chaos, some want power, some want oil, some want autonomy, and some want to be left alone. In the end, clear leaders and policy positions of each "side" have not yet emerged. Until this happens there is little we can do to end the violence beyond police the state, train the Iraqi military, and focus on economic advancement for the common people.

In any case, Niall Ferguson of Harvard published this nice summary of civil war research in Time. Take a look here.

New NIE

2007 National Intelligence Estimate: Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead

"A much-anticipated assessment of Iraq by America’s intelligence agencies describes a worsening cycle of chaos in the country, and predicts that the sectarian strife will continue to fracture the country without bold actions by Iraqi politicians."

NY Times Summary

Is This a Civil War?
"Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates called the term “civil war” a “bumper-sticker answer” that oversimplified the reality of overlapping conflicts. “I believe that there are essentially four wars going on in Iraq,” he said at a Pentagon briefing today, citing Shia-on-Shia strife, principally in the South; sectarian violence, largely in Baghdad; the Sunni insurgency, and attacks by Al Qaeda."

Positive Notes
"And the assessment says that some developments “could” help to reverse the downward spiral: broader Sunni acceptance of the political structure; concessions by Shiites and Kurds to “create space” for Sunni acceptance, and “a bottom-up approach” to help mend frayed tribal and religious relationships."

Future Dangers
"Widespread fighting could produce “de facto partition” of the country into “three mutually antagonistic parts” and spawn “fierce violence” among Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds for years. A second possibility is that a new strongman could emerge, a Shiite this time, instead of the new democracy envisioned by the Bush administration. Finally, there could be anarchy, with resulting instability and bloodshed."

Why we hate the French (this week)

So first the French say that its ok for Iran to have nukes, then they try to tax us for not signing the Kyoto treaty. This is going to be a good year for US-French relations, I can just feel it.

Chirac Strays From Assailing a Nuclear Iran

“I would say that what is dangerous about this situation is not the fact of having a nuclear bomb,” he said. “Having one or perhaps a second bomb a little later, well, that’s not very dangerous.

“But what is very dangerous is proliferation. This means that if Iran continues in the direction it has taken and totally masters nuclear-generated electricity, the danger does not lie in the bomb it will have, and which will be of no use to it.”

France Tells U.S. to Sign Climate Pacts or Face Tax

"President Jacques Chirac of France said Europe could impose a carbon tax on imports from nations that do not participate in the Kyoto climate protocol."